Beijing has deployed its coast guard into the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past remote Japan's territory as China escalates strains following the Japan's leader's comments regarding the island of Taiwan.
On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its ships carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Tokyo but also asserted as territory by China.
“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.
Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the islands but the recent developments occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, the Japanese official, addressed lawmakers that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Japan.
That sparked an angry response from China, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from the Japanese official.
China claims Taiwan as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has not ruled out the military option. The island's administration and citizens overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.
An military assault by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the US and other allies including Japan, which has territory just 68 miles from Taiwan.
In Taiwan, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was probably the coast guard, operating around the territory over the past 24 hours.
Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs flying between the island and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, appearing to go particularly close to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are occasional, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in recent weeks.
Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added Taiwan had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.
Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.
Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first occasion since 2023, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.
Late last week, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.
Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.
In another escalation, Beijing's administration on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.
Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.
Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.
“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other powers, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”
The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.
Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.
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