Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
